- Ken PaxtonR
- James TalaricoD
- Ted BrownL
- James Talarico42%
- Ken Paxton58%
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Market chance of winningKalshi market59.5% D · 40.5% R
| Source | Measure | Value |
|---|---|---|
| LWC prediction | Model forecast | Tilt R(42% D 58% R) |
| Cook Political Report | Expert rating | Toss Up |
| Crystal Ball | Expert rating | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections | Expert rating | Lean Republican |
Texas · Kalshi
Daily Yes prices · 2026-01-23 to 2026-09-29
9/29Dem 59.5%Rep 40.5%
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- TX
Cycle receipts · common dollar scale
- James Talarico$68,560,930Filing through 2026-06-30
- Rafael Edward Ted Cruz$10,228,280Filing through date unavailable